Prospective modelling course

Prospective modelling course: Principles and uses of mathematical models to assess policies.

Lecturer: Nadia MAÏZI

Spurred on by the issue of climate and economic globalization, prospective modelling, a tradition neglected over the years, linking digital projection, mathematical economics, public economy and strategic thinking, is today reinvested considerably in the context of international negotiations around the climate issue. The renewed interest in this subject has been expressed by contributions on these very subjects at the Ecole des Mines in Nancy (engineering school), the EDDEE masters and of course in the framework of the post-master in Energy System Optimization run by the CMA.

Course aims: The aim of this course is to present prospective modelling tools, created in the 1960’s from the dialogue between mathematicians and economists and based on a concept of optimality. On the one hand it takes up the history of the contribution of long-term prospective models faced with the climate issue and on the other, it interprets mathematics’ contribution in the context of prospective modelling by developing the models in their interdisciplinary approach: mathematics and economics.

Through concrete examples it shows the reason why these tools, bringing skills in applied mathematics and economic sciences into play, have become the key, essential aid to prospective reflection to assess policies to fight against climate change. In addition, the aim of this course is to:

• Tackle mathematical problems from another angle by illustrating the role of mathematic modelling and optimization for issues “in theory” without mathematics;
• Prepare for debates on climate change by giving perspective to available modelling tools;
• Tackle the problems with modelling in a complex dynamic context, that of climate change, where the human factor is central